Why it happened in Egypt so unexpectedly?
By Vinod Varshney
People’s uprising in Egypt is going to end the 30-year long autocratic rule of President Hosni Mubarak. But it is not just as simple as that. It will have widespread implications not only for other Arab and Muslim countries, but many others including India.
The unexpectedness of the political upheaval on Arab streets took most countries’ foreign offices by surprise. Many are wondering how nobody could foresee the avalanche in Egypt. How come no intelligence agency could suggest that it was coming? No diplomatic pundits could forecast.
Many questions are now being asked how and why it happened so suddenly. But who had anticipated that the USSR would crumble the way it did in 1991?
Is there any invisible force behind?
Many do not believe that such an organized movement can be spontaneous. There should be some invisible force behind. But they are not able to figure out whose handiwork it could be.
Could it be Russia or China if not the US? Or is it Iran? Or is it Hamas of Palestine? Or is this just an expression of anger against Egypt’s weak policies towards Israel? Or is this a new Muslim phenomenon when people of Muslim countries have started coming out on streets for getting a democratic system of governance?
It is natural expression of desire for change
Majority of people I have spoken to believe that it is the natural expression of long suppressed Egyptians. It would be illustrative to know the kind of regime people of Egypt were living in.
Egypt is a country of 80 million who are controlled by 2 million police force, 1 million intelligence corps, 0.5 million strong army and another 0.5 million reserve army. In 25 out of 29 states the governors are either from police or military. Military people are running flourishing businesses and have enough control on the economy.
Left ideologues would have liked to paint Egyptian people’s uprising as an expression of anti-Americanism because the Mubarak regime had continually been supported by the US aid. But surprisingly there were no anti-US or anti-Military slogans.
Massive unemployement is one of the main causes
Most reliable explanation seems that it is the cumulative effect of so many things and the most important of them is the unemployment of hundreds of thousands of young Egyptians. Approximately 3 million people lost their jobs due to global turmoil in the financial service sector. The unemployment rate is staggeringly high around 34% among educated Egyptians?
Egypt has fifty percent population of young people who are under twenties. In such a situation it is not surprising that people got organised propelled by quick and free communication provided by internet. Much inspiration came from the uprising of Tunisia, which threw out the dictator, which was well shown by Al Jazeera TV.
By Vinod Varshney
People’s uprising in Egypt is going to end the 30-year long autocratic rule of President Hosni Mubarak. But it is not just as simple as that. It will have widespread implications not only for other Arab and Muslim countries, but many others including India.
The unexpectedness of the political upheaval on Arab streets took most countries’ foreign offices by surprise. Many are wondering how nobody could foresee the avalanche in Egypt. How come no intelligence agency could suggest that it was coming? No diplomatic pundits could forecast.
Many questions are now being asked how and why it happened so suddenly. But who had anticipated that the USSR would crumble the way it did in 1991?
Is there any invisible force behind?
Many do not believe that such an organized movement can be spontaneous. There should be some invisible force behind. But they are not able to figure out whose handiwork it could be.
Could it be Russia or China if not the US? Or is it Iran? Or is it Hamas of Palestine? Or is this just an expression of anger against Egypt’s weak policies towards Israel? Or is this a new Muslim phenomenon when people of Muslim countries have started coming out on streets for getting a democratic system of governance?
It is natural expression of desire for change
Majority of people I have spoken to believe that it is the natural expression of long suppressed Egyptians. It would be illustrative to know the kind of regime people of Egypt were living in.
Egypt is a country of 80 million who are controlled by 2 million police force, 1 million intelligence corps, 0.5 million strong army and another 0.5 million reserve army. In 25 out of 29 states the governors are either from police or military. Military people are running flourishing businesses and have enough control on the economy.
Left ideologues would have liked to paint Egyptian people’s uprising as an expression of anti-Americanism because the Mubarak regime had continually been supported by the US aid. But surprisingly there were no anti-US or anti-Military slogans.
Massive unemployement is one of the main causes
Most reliable explanation seems that it is the cumulative effect of so many things and the most important of them is the unemployment of hundreds of thousands of young Egyptians. Approximately 3 million people lost their jobs due to global turmoil in the financial service sector. The unemployment rate is staggeringly high around 34% among educated Egyptians?
Egypt has fifty percent population of young people who are under twenties. In such a situation it is not surprising that people got organised propelled by quick and free communication provided by internet. Much inspiration came from the uprising of Tunisia, which threw out the dictator, which was well shown by Al Jazeera TV.
Is this is not a parallel of Tiananman Square? But you have not mentioned any thing about it.
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