Saturday, June 22, 2013

Will he complete his TERM this time?

By Vinod Varshney
Nawaz Sharief has taken the oath as prime minister of Pakistan for the 3rd time, marking the first democratic transition of power in Pakistan, a country where elected leaders are recklessly thrown out by Military. Nawaz Sharief too was removed in a bloodless coup by general Parvez Musharraf in Oct, 1999. Earlier also he was persuaded by then military chief to step down amidst his legal tiff with the president in the supreme court in 1993.

Nawaz Sharif
    It is indeed the magic of democracy that he has become the prime minister again though his electoral victory this time is not as grand as it was in 1997 when his party Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) had secured two thirds majority in the National Assembly. This time his party has emerged as the largest single party by securing 32.77 percent votes with 126 seats out of 272.  The biggest challenge before Nawaz Sharief will be to bring Pakistan out of anti-Indianism which essentially has ruined Pakistan. Sharief’s early statements indicate that he would improve relations with India. He had demonstrated this in 1999 also when after nuclear tests of 1998 he with Atal Bihari Vajpayee vowed to stop the nuclear race and improve relations with India as outlined in Lahore Declaration. But, general Parvez Musharraf’s anti-Indianism scuttled the gain of Lahore Declaration by Kargil incursion.  Political observers assume that Nawaz Sharief is now more mellowed and astute than ever and would be able to complete full term and solve Pakistan’s problems where economic growth is below 4 percent, people do not get electricity for 18 hours in a day and sectarian violence is rampant. The biggest challenge would be to persuade the US to stop drone attack on Pakistan. He is an industrialist-turned politician and his style of functioning differs from the feudal style of People’s Party of Pakistan leaders. Voters rightly punished ruling PPP, which secured only 15.23 percent votes to come at the third place with 31 seats. The second place was won by cricketer Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, which got more votes than PPP, but less seats, only 29.
 ( The Article was first published in the monthly magazine of political affairs the ' Lokayat' (June, 2013 issue)  

Li offered only assurances

The new Chinese premier Li Keqiang’s first visit to India after assuming power happened in the shadow of Depsang incursion by Chinese troops. He concluded his visit without offering anything of substance on the table.

By Vinod Varshney
During last few years Chinese attitude has become more and more hostile towards Indian interests. It made every attempt to see India does not enter in the United Nations Security Council and opposed Indian entry into Nuclear Suppliers Group despite its unquestionable non-proliferation record. China has refused to even clarify the line of actual control not to say of moving ahead to resolve the boundary question. China gives stapled visa to Indians from Arunachal Pradesh and has reduced the length of Indo-China border by not counting the border along Kashmir. Its missile and nuclear cooperation with Pakistan is on the rise. While Delhi acknowledges China's sovereignty over Tibet, Beijing's position on J&K has become increasingly hostile to India. The precept that improved trade relations with China would reduce its hostility towards India has proved wrong. India’s trade with China rose from $2.1 bn in 2001-02 to $75.6 bn in 2011-12. But what is the result? This rising trade is grossly unfavourable to India offering it a trade deficit of $ 40.7 b in 2012-13.
      The huge dumping of Chinese goods in India has hurt Indian manufacturing growth. There are trade restrictions on Indian IT and Pharma companies in China and thus it becomes difficult to increase exports to China. Even export of buffalo meat was not allowed. Now it has been decided to reduce the trade imbalance. The agreements will now allow India to export buffalo meat, fisheries and pharmaceuticals and also feed and feed ingredients. In the joint statement the trade turnover target has been pegged at $ 100 billion by 2015. The Chinese assurance is that efforts would be made to address the issue of trade imbalance.
      On the boundary issue it has been decided that our Special Representatives would meet in a month’s time to speed up the process of resolution of boundary tussle. India first of all wants clarity on the line of actual control. Will China do it? The ambiguity is used for repeated incursions. China and India have already exchanged maps in the middle sector and have shown maps in the western sector. China wants border management agreement with the condition that India would not make any defence preparedness on its side no matter China has already made extensive preparations at the boder. Chinese leader Li Keqiang wanted support from India on its claim on islands in South China Sea, but Manmohan Singh reminded him that there were already international laws to take care of the issue and refused to support Chinese contention.
( The Article was first published in the monthly magazine of political affairs the ' Lokayat' (June, 2013 issue) 

The new Tibetan realities

Tremendous changes at a fast pace have transformed Tibet altogether. Crass crookedness of Chinese politics has taken away much of the religious and spiritual fervour and freedom of Tibetans. But the planned economic miracle after gaining control over the vast plateau by force in 1950 has cast its own magic in the area. Thanks to influx of Han Chinese and installing sarkari monks in most of the shrines the Chinese government has successfully cinicized the area. Tibetans have no option---they have to get accustomed to the new realities and life styles which Chinese officials have cleverly ordained for them.
  
By Ranjeet
The mysterious culture and fragrance of Tibetan incense permeates all over Tibet, only to be fouled by strong underground political dissent and rush of polluting vehicles and energy consuming modern facilities meant to cater millions of tourists who throng this astounding Himalayan part of the world each year. The highways and railways have shattered the glorious serenity of mountains, but have brought material prosperity in the daily lives of people here. 
         The sinicization of Buddhist Tibet is complete: government of China is encouraging widespread industrialisation of the region. Amidst modern economic life, the ancient religion also does survive here, of course under the tutelage of the Chinese government.
        But ever increasing incidents of self-immolation by Tibetan monks have made Chinese leadership apprehensive while to the outside world it is an unmistakable signal of simmering dissent against Chinese over-control. Interestingly, the leaders of the Tibetan People’s Congress wash their hands off by asserting that these incidents are not happening in Tibet but elsewhere, in provinces like Gansu and Qinghai. These provinces once belonged to Tibet. A decade after communist takeover of the Tibetan areas, the Chinese government granted the status of Tibetan Autonomous Region to the present Tibet, excluding areas of Sichuan, Gansu, Qinghai and some parts of Yunnan.
         These Tibetan areas were later designated as provinces of the Peoples Republic of China. All these provinces together are described by the Tibetans as Greater Tibet, which comprises almost one fifth of China. That is the reason the self-immolations sent a wave of silent jitter in the Chinese leadership. The Dalai Lama, living in exile, has already conceded the sovereignty of Chinese government over Tibet, and only wants a conducive atmosphere and justification for him to go back to Lhasa to regain the religious authority over the Tibetan people. His other main demand is to merge excluded areas of Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai to the Tibet Autonomous Region. However, the Chinese government smells rat in the proposition and is wary of conceding this demand.
         During my recent visit to Tibet, it was quite interesting to look at the Chinese perspective of the need to change the present and future generations of the Tibetan monks and monasteries. Chinese officials showcased the best of amenities that are being provided to monasteries and their Tibetan monks; in the process however conspicuous was their design to transform the independent monks into Sarkari ones. The Chinese government has set up several monk training centres generously funded by the government. Chinese, who are known to work with a vision for the next two or three decades, have opened a Tibetan Buddhism University, where young kids selected from various villages are trained to become monks. I had the chance to visit one of the centres where kids as young as 7-8 years were housed in a hostel, where air conditioned rooms were as good as in any good hotel. These kids get generous amount as scholarship and teachers enjoy fat salaries. One glaring aspect of this university, which was essentially a monk training centre, could not go unnoticed--the hostel rooms were adorned with photographs of Mao Tse Dong, Deng Xiao Ping, Jiang Zhe Min etc. and not a single picture of the religious leaders like Dalai Lama and Panchen Lama. Obviously the kids are being impregnated with ideals and thoughts of these leaders rather than their revered religious leaders.
        
This is the Chinese way to brainwash these kids and instill their minds with pro-communist regime of China. Naturally, when they will grow up as adults and deployed by the state to guide and control the destinies of more than 1,700 monasteries across Tibet, they would be preaching religious followers the thoughts of Mao along with the teachings of Lord Buddha. The present Panchen Lama, still in his early thirties, lives not at Shigatse monastery, the revered seat of Panchen Lama, but in Beijing and makes an annual pilgrimage to the holy place. 
         Chinese government does not see eye to eye with the current Dalai Lama, and since no incarnation is legitimately possible, the present incarnation of Panchen Lama, has been trained as sarkari Lama and the Chinese government has taken every care to insulate the young Panchen Lama from the Tibetan religious functionaries. The absence of Dalai Lama from the seat of governance, the Potala Palace, is missed by common Tibetans, who according to locals is revered with deep sense of love, though the Chinese government describes him as a wily insurgent.
         From Potala Palace to Shigatse, a distance of almost 300 km presents picturesque surroundings adorned with ultra-modern zigzagging highways. Monasteries are full of life with devotees performing their religious chores and chanting Sutras. Religious activities take place routinely, except that the state keeps a close watch on them.
         The Chinese government in order to win over Tibetans has invested a lot in infrastructure, which has undoubtedly brought economic revolution in the area and Tibetans are experiencing a life style which was unimaginable a few decades ago. The capital Lhasa boasts of an ultramodern airport, which is connected to the city with a 60 km long expressway. The city itself presents a picture of an ultra modern township with mega malls, shopping centres, eateries etc. The city bustles with economic activities thanks to its Economic and Technical Development Zone, which is attracting millions of dollars as investments.
The economic zone offers immense scope for employment to Han population but local Tibetans too are benefitting a lot. The Tibetan youths have an opportunity to study in one of the best equipped universities in Lhasa enabling them to get skilled jobs in modern factories. The Tibetan youths are also encouraged to study in institutions of higher learning in Beijing and other major cities.
         After the Chinese took control of Tibet in 1951, the first decision was to free the poor Tibetans from serfdom, which indeed has done wonders in their life. A modern life has been thrown open to them and they seem to be enjoying the benefits of industrial development. Their living standards have reached an unimaginable level, though the freedom to lead one’s own religious life is constrained. But Tibetans have no choice. Having the Dalai Lama already accepted Chinese sovereignty over the Tibetan areas; there is little political space left for any adherent group to reverse Chinese control over the vast Tibetan plateau..
( The Article was first published in the monthly magazine of political affairs the ' Lokayat' (June, 2013 issue)

Cry for political reforms in China

China’s ultra fast economy has achieved the second place in the world and it may challenge America’s pre-eminent position before long. But this has not lessened the economic stresses on Chinese people. Prices of essential commodities are soaring relentlessly and housing, health and education are getting beyond most of them. So, the new leaders who have just taken over the reins of power in Beijing have an arduous road ahead. People will not accept mere talk of socialism and sacrifice any more.Their shrill cry for political reforms is echoing from all-around the famed walls…..

By VSP Kurup
China’s political and economic road map announced by the new leadership does notpresage any change in the extant policies; yet there is a general assumption that even driving along the path and direction laid down by the great visionary Jiang Zemin and faithfully followed by his able successors Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao until recently, will mean the future is pregnant with immense possibilities. During the 14 years (1989-2003) when Jiang Zemin was at the helm of affairs China became the fastest growing economy in the world. Today it is the second largest economy, overtaking Japan and all European giants. Who can say it will not challenge the USA for the first position before the end of the decade?Now trying to recover from virtual financial ruins, America is deeply worried about this prospect.
        Reiterating the government’s known position before the first assembly of the newly constituted 2,200-member Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), its Chairman Yu Zhengsheng declared that the country would continue with the single party system; it would never accept the multi-party governance as in the West. But the Communist Party of China (CPC)-led government would have consultations with other groups. (In China there are eight other political parties but they are allowed to function only in consonance with and subordinate to the CPC.)
        The CPPCC is the second chamber of the Chinese parliament with 60 percent members from outside the party-- akin to the Rajya Sabha. It has only an advisory role. The real power is wielded by the National People’s Congress (NPC), the main chamber of parliament with 3,000 members, mostly communist party cardholders. A 7-member Standing Committee, or cabinet, controls the party as well as the government. Yu Zhengsheng who presides over the CPPCC occupies the 4th place in the Standing Committee, which is headed by the party chairman and president of China, Xi Jinping.
        For all its vibrant lip-service to people’s power and paeans of popular movements, China is not ready to establish democracy. It is not willing to loosen control on the media. There have been several reports of the government muzzling the internet as well as newspapers for publishing certain unsavory facts about the high and mighty in China. And, despite the apparent calm on the surface, there have been nearly two lakh agitations in various parts of China in 2012.
        Assuredly, the trek China has started on the capitalist road without any fuss or flamboyance will continue because its people ‘enjoy’ the new ambience. They (at least the top cream who alone matter) have private property, expensive cars, luxury mansions, fat bank balance – why, all goodies for a fast life. (Other concomitants of capitalism like corruption, sexual escapades, political murders etc. too are there. But that is another story.) The irony is that China still swears by socialism. Zhengsheng stressed that the extant ‘Chinese socialism’ would continue to shape its economy! No hint of a definition of this new jargon, but one can presume from the goings on in hinterland China that it consists less of socialism and more of capitalism!
Statistically, Chinese economy might have become number two in the world, but there is no respite for the people groaning under severe stress on account of rocketing prices of essential commodities. Real estate prices are also going beyond the reach of ordinary people with attendant consequences. It is the same story with regard to education and medical treatment. Where is the stamp of socialism in all these?
        Just before the current CPPCC meeting an open letter signed by more than 100 prominent Chinese leaders, scholars, economists, journalists and former party officials made an unprecedented appeal for political reforms. The letter urged the CPC leadership particularly to ratify the International Human Rights Treaty ‘in order to further promote and establish the principles of human rights and constitutionalism in China’. It is said to be the boldest demand yet coming from Chinese intellectuals. They hoped the new leaders would push for political reforms, curtail the party’s power and raise the authority of constitution and courts. The party and the government can not ignore these cries for long, especially since they do not want another scandalous Tiananmen!
( The Article was first published in the monthly magazine of political affairs the ' Lokayat' (June, 2013 issue)  

Indo-Japan Bonhomie irks China

India has initiated steps to expand its defence relationship with Japan. If this is seriously pursued, it can be a game-changer for the geopolitics in Asia as well as the economy of both the countries.

By Vinod Varshney
Japan and India have finally decided to expand their defence relationship as both countries remain apprehensive of China’s aggressive postures. Chinese attitude has forced them to change their foreign policy stances, though quite late. Japan has stopped assailing India for its nuclear tests conducted in 1998; rather it is now ready to enter into civil nuclear cooperation with it. Japan is also moving towards changing its pacifist constitution to be able to do normal defence preparedness to thwart Chinese muscle-flexing over Senkaku islands in South China Sea.
      Indian keenness to have better strategic tie-up with Japan acquired fresh urgency in the shadow of Chinese incursion in Depsang (Ladakh) last month. Their troops entered 25 kilometers deep into Indian territory and erected three tents while Chinese authorities continued to claim it was Chinese area. China had already annexed Aksai Chin area of Jammu & Kashmir and lays blatant claim on entire Arunachal Pradesh. It does not support Indian sovereignty on J&K. No wonder, a recent survey conducted by two international think tanks revealed that some 83 percent Indians view China as a security threat. That is why Indian government chose to be a realist this time rather than a romantist as in Nehru’s days.  However, as expected the Indian move irked China and its pro-government Global Times warned that India can improve relations with Japan only at its peril. India would only be inviting problems for itself if it does so.
      The process had started to improve relations with Japan as early as 2006 when Shinzo Abe first welcomed prime minister Manmohan Singh in Tokyo. But relations between India and Japan did not acquire momentun due to political instability in Japan where no prime minister on an average would stay even for a year. 
      If we see from the point of view of Indian needs, the growing relationship with Japan is the need of the hour. Not only does the security threat to both countries from China make it a compulsive choice but also the economic complementarity. India needs badly investment and high technology to improve its productivity to compete with China economically.
      In the current state of affairs India is not only facing huge trade deficit with China which makes one third of its total current account deficit but also losing its economic growth to China to some extent as Indian markets remain flooded with Chinese goods stagnating its manufacturing. Japan too needs India as a big market, almost equal to China.
      The immediate gain to India is Japan’s flagship investment in the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor and a new Bangalore-Chennai Corridor. This would alter country’s manufacturing fortunes.

( The Article was first published in the monthly magazine of political affairs the ' Lokayat' (June, 2013 issue)