An Endearing Audacity

By Vinod Varshney
Denial is second nature to most leaders of conventional political parties, and   arrogance and condescending behavior towards people their outstanding trait. No wonder the Congress needed humiliating defeat in four states to wake it to the grim reality of its hollow narcissistic claim of mass-appeal, and to make it realise that people take corruption charges seriously.  People also cannot be fooled by circulating insinuations based on fake or doctored tapes and sting operations. Politicians would do well to note that people do not care much about doles; rather, they want good governance, jobs and control over prices.
       It was good to hear Sonia Gandhi talking about the need for deep introspection and Rahul Gandhi mentioning the need to learn from the newbie Aam Aadmi Party (Party of Common Man). This is a welcome sign in the leaders of a party which until the day of counting was smugly arrogant, not even ready to acknowledge the existence of the Aam Aadmi Party or its leader Arvind Kejriwal who was mocked at by the three-time Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit as a monsoon pest.
      Election results in Delhi indeed have shocked the two major national parties and confounded experts who are wont to look at politics in terms of caste, communities and vote banks. The way the one-year-old Aam Admi Party defeated the seemingly invincible Shiela with a margin exceeding the total votes she polled, the Congress Party should seriously think of closing down its dirty tricks department. 
     Many experts say the Aam Aadmi Party indulges in excessive populism. But not many are prepared to applaud its praiseworthy initiative in making election funding totally transparent. The fledgling political outfit put details of all donations received on its website. This is in sharp contrast to the corrupt and competitive politics practiced by others as a business run on the strength of black money.
      Another laudable APP initiative was the method of candidates’ selection in which opinions of the electorate in the constituency were sought and weighed. Preparation of manifesto separately for each constituency was an entirely new experiment. It was necessary to make governance accountable and closer to people’s needs. This method of trying to understand people’s aspirations revealed that lack of drinking water was the biggest problem of more than half of Delhiites. It showed that poor people wanted pure drinking water rather than liquor as price of their votes. By all accounts, therefore, this Delhi election will remain a textbook phenomenon to be studied by political scientists. It may also be a classic example of how power-drunk rulers could miss the mood of the people. Rahul Gandhi might want to present the image of an angry young man in a hurry with rolled-up sleeves wanting to make common cause with  people, but it was the down-to-earth Arvind Kejriwal who really struck an emotional chord with the electorate. Kejriwal’s utterances were direct, incisive and sincere enough to evoke trust and confidence. His narration of netas as chor, corrupt and criminals, half of whom would be behind bars once Jan Lokpal Bill was passed, was met with angry retorts from  leaders of established parties, but his words truly echoed the deep convictions of the voiceless common people.
      His ability to translate new ideas into votes provides the hint that his Delhi model can be replicated elsewhere in the country. Certainly he has succeeded in creating in people a desire for change. At this stage it seems his determination to change the political culture of India is simply audacious because it is in the vice grip of black money, criminals, crony capitalists, communalists and other vested interests.  But this audacity is what endears him to millions of our people.

The Article was first published in the monthly magazine of political affairs, the ' Lokayat' (December, 2013 issue)
 

Why Not Reject One Only!

By Vinod Varshney
The political class does not like to take up issues of electoral reforms seriously though it continues to debate over them at various fora. The reason is simple and straight. Why should politicians tamper with the existing system when it has offered them so much ?
      So far as the latest reform is concerned, the situation became funny when a fait accompli was converted into a deed of conviction in a dramatic manner by Rahul Gandhi for banning convicted elected representatives to retain their membership of the house. The moral of the story is–serious work would only be done by the Supreme Court and the credit must be grabbed by one or several political parties or just an individual. 
     Such dramas of stealing thunder are much needed by the media to remain interesting. They always look for spicy and sensational developments to retain some of its entertainment value amidst a lot of morose happenings. It gives good opportunity for the chattering class also to run their avocation with passion.
However, many politicians might be shuddering at the prospects of more electoral reforms that may befall in their way sooner or later by judicial intervention, hurting their interests even more. They may again have no choice but delay implementation by their peculiar tactics in the name of parliamentary democracy. Ultimately the voice of aam admi would be heard in a vibrant democracy.
     The next bolt from the blue can be the right to reject only an individual candidate during elections. The Supreme Court recently approved voters’ right to reject all the candidates contesting elections if they so wanted by clicking the button—NOTA (None of the above). This is harmless for individual contestants. It will not be able to check election of an undesired candidate as one of the rejected candidates will still be declared elected. Thus the purpose of checking an undesirable candidate cannot be achieved. For this many activists recommend that voters should be given the right to cast a negative vote against a chosen candidate. One will not be surprised if any time soon the Supreme Court gives a verdict of this kind. The hint is already there in the judgement passed on the petition related to rejecting all the candidates.
     Getting a right to reject all candidates is only a cosmetic change in the electoral process and does not fulfil the true desire of people who are frustrated with the way politics is conducted by their elected representatives. Many activists therefore demand a right to cast a negative vote against a chosen individual. Sometimes a winner gets only 15-20 percent of the total votes cast showing that majority of voters were not in favour of the winner. Negative voting against a chosen individual can qualitatively change the electoral chances of contesting candidates. The focus of elections then might be not so much on who should win, but on who should not win at all. But ultimate result would be the election of a clean candidate.


( The Article was first published in the monthly magazine of political affairs the ' Lokayat' (October, 2013 issue) 

Break this nexus

By Vinod Varshney
The arrest of Asaram Bapu must have opened the eyes of millions. They must have been shocked to know how in garb of supernatural healing powers carnal crimes can take place. The law is taking its own course in this case; but a larger question will remain who to blame for the widespread blind faith in the so-called supernatural powers of self-styled, self-proclaimed gurus and godmen in our society. The blame squarely falls first on widespread ignorance. But then why the ignorance could not be stamped out of the Indian society?
Unfortunately not only the political class for the sake of votes pays obeisance to such gurus and godmen, but a section of media also, whose job is to spread the light of knowledge, rationality and correct information, is found glamourising them. In fact there remains tremendous pressure on them in the name of ancient culture to protect many false and unscientific notions.
     The murder of Narendra Dabholkar in Pune is an example of how people who had been sincerely doing the job of fighting out the murky influence of the blind faith on the society run the risk for their life. It is all the more shameful in a country where our first prime minister Jawahar Lal Nehru as an avowed rationalist wanted to see Indian society grow on the bedrock of scientific temper, his party the Congress has leaders like Vilas Rao Deshmukh and Ashok Chavan and others along with the BJP and Shiv Sena leaders who did not allow anti-blind faith and anti-black magic bill to pass for 18 years.
     Only after the murder of Dabholkar, an ordinance, that too much diluted, has been cleared by the Maharashtra government. It is a sad commentary on the political health of the country that several right wing organisations openly issue threats to people who believe in the scientific reason, methods and rationality. This needs to be reminded that if India remained behind in science and technology for centuries, much of the blame goes to the prevalence of anti-science attitude of its social, religious and cultural leaders.
     It is a myth that the proponents of rationality are anti-religion and decry the religious faith based on scriptures and traditional culture, but they, for sure, are against the blind faith and its misuse to exploit ignorant and gullible masses. The alleged exploitation of the sixteen year old school girl by Asaram Bapu is a case in point. Not just the sexual abuse, many rituals lead to even deaths, physical and psychological trauma. Many of the so-called supernatural cures are based on physical beating of the patient.
     The relevant question is who opposes social reforms. Why political leaders for the sake of votes become agents of godmen and godwomen touted with possessing magical supernatural powers? Indian society should remember that India too in the past had strong base of science and many scientists like Aryabhat, Varahmihir, Brahmgupa, Bhaskaracharya, Vagbhat, Nagarjuna and Sushrut etc built a strong base of rationality.
     Unfortunately, the current globalised form of capitalism has given a glamorous image to the centres of blind faith, godmen and godwomen—visiting them described as pilgrimage. A significant part of tourism industry relies on this. There exists a sinister nexus of black money, politics and the centres of blind faith. The healthy politics should aim to break this nexus.
( The Article was first published in the monthly magazine of political affairs the ' Lokayat' (September, 2013 issue) 

Will he complete his TERM this time?

By Vinod Varshney
Nawaz Sharief has taken the oath as prime minister of Pakistan for the 3rd time, marking the first democratic transition of power in Pakistan, a country where elected leaders are recklessly thrown out by Military. Nawaz Sharief too was removed in a bloodless coup by general Parvez Musharraf in Oct, 1999. Earlier also he was persuaded by then military chief to step down amidst his legal tiff with the president in the supreme court in 1993.

Nawaz Sharif

    It is indeed the magic of democracy that he has become the prime minister again though his electoral victory this time is not as grand as it was in 1997 when his party Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) had secured two thirds majority in the National Assembly. This time his party has emerged as the largest single party by securing 32.77 percent votes with 126 seats out of 272.  The biggest challenge before Nawaz Sharief will be to bring Pakistan out of anti-Indianism which essentially has ruined Pakistan. Sharief’s early statements indicate that he would improve relations with India. He had demonstrated this in 1999 also when after nuclear tests of 1998 he with Atal Bihari Vajpayee vowed to stop the nuclear race and improve relations with India as outlined in Lahore Declaration. But, general Parvez Musharraf’s anti-Indianism scuttled the gain of Lahore Declaration by Kargil incursion.  Political observers assume that Nawaz Sharief is now more mellowed and astute than ever and would be able to complete full term and solve Pakistan’s problems where economic growth is below 4 percent, people do not get electricity for 18 hours in a day and sectarian violence is rampant. The biggest challenge would be to persuade the US to stop drone attack on Pakistan. He is an industrialist-turned politician and his style of functioning differs from the feudal style of People’s Party of Pakistan leaders. Voters rightly punished ruling PPP, which secured only 15.23 percent votes to come at the third place with 31 seats. The second place was won by cricketer Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, which got more votes than PPP, but less seats, only 29.
 ( The Article was first published in the monthly magazine of political affairs the ' Lokayat' (June, 2013 issue)  

Li offered only assurances

The new Chinese premier Li Keqiang’s first visit to India after assuming power happened in the shadow of Depsang incursion by Chinese troops. He concluded his visit without offering anything of substance on the table.

By Vinod Varshney
During last few years Chinese attitude has become more and more hostile towards Indian interests. It made every attempt to see India does not enter in the United Nations Security Council and opposed Indian entry into Nuclear Suppliers Group despite its unquestionable non-proliferation record. China has refused to even clarify the line of actual control not to say of moving ahead to resolve the boundary question. China gives stapled visa to Indians from Arunachal Pradesh and has reduced the length of Indo-China border by not counting the border along Kashmir. Its missile and nuclear cooperation with Pakistan is on the rise. While Delhi acknowledges China's sovereignty over Tibet, Beijing's position on J&K has become increasingly hostile to India. The precept that improved trade relations with China would reduce its hostility towards India has proved wrong. India’s trade with China rose from $2.1 bn in 2001-02 to $75.6 bn in 2011-12. But what is the result? This rising trade is grossly unfavourable to India offering it a trade deficit of $ 40.7 b in 2012-13.
      The huge dumping of Chinese goods in India has hurt Indian manufacturing growth. There are trade restrictions on Indian IT and Pharma companies in China and thus it becomes difficult to increase exports to China. Even export of buffalo meat was not allowed. Now it has been decided to reduce the trade imbalance. The agreements will now allow India to export buffalo meat, fisheries and pharmaceuticals and also feed and feed ingredients. In the joint statement the trade turnover target has been pegged at $ 100 billion by 2015. The Chinese assurance is that efforts would be made to address the issue of trade imbalance.
      On the boundary issue it has been decided that our Special Representatives would meet in a month’s time to speed up the process of resolution of boundary tussle. India first of all wants clarity on the line of actual control. Will China do it? The ambiguity is used for repeated incursions. China and India have already exchanged maps in the middle sector and have shown maps in the western sector. China wants border management agreement with the condition that India would not make any defence preparedness on its side no matter China has already made extensive preparations at the boder. Chinese leader Li Keqiang wanted support from India on its claim on islands in South China Sea, but Manmohan Singh reminded him that there were already international laws to take care of the issue and refused to support Chinese contention.
( The Article was first published in the monthly magazine of political affairs the ' Lokayat' (June, 2013 issue) 

The new Tibetan realities

Tremendous changes at a fast pace have transformed Tibet altogether. Crass crookedness of Chinese politics has taken away much of the religious and spiritual fervour and freedom of Tibetans. But the planned economic miracle after gaining control over the vast plateau by force in 1950 has cast its own magic in the area. Thanks to influx of Han Chinese and installing sarkari monks in most of the shrines the Chinese government has successfully cinicized the area. Tibetans have no option---they have to get accustomed to the new realities and life styles which Chinese officials have cleverly ordained for them.
  
By Ranjeet
The mysterious culture and fragrance of Tibetan incense permeates all over Tibet, only to be fouled by strong underground political dissent and rush of polluting vehicles and energy consuming modern facilities meant to cater millions of tourists who throng this astounding Himalayan part of the world each year. The highways and railways have shattered the glorious serenity of mountains, but have brought material prosperity in the daily lives of people here. 
         The sinicization of Buddhist Tibet is complete: government of China is encouraging widespread industrialisation of the region. Amidst modern economic life, the ancient religion also does survive here, of course under the tutelage of the Chinese government.
        But ever increasing incidents of self-immolation by Tibetan monks have made Chinese leadership apprehensive while to the outside world it is an unmistakable signal of simmering dissent against Chinese over-control. Interestingly, the leaders of the Tibetan People’s Congress wash their hands off by asserting that these incidents are not happening in Tibet but elsewhere, in provinces like Gansu and Qinghai. These provinces once belonged to Tibet. A decade after communist takeover of the Tibetan areas, the Chinese government granted the status of Tibetan Autonomous Region to the present Tibet, excluding areas of Sichuan, Gansu, Qinghai and some parts of Yunnan.
         These Tibetan areas were later designated as provinces of the Peoples Republic of China. All these provinces together are described by the Tibetans as Greater Tibet, which comprises almost one fifth of China. That is the reason the self-immolations sent a wave of silent jitter in the Chinese leadership. The Dalai Lama, living in exile, has already conceded the sovereignty of Chinese government over Tibet, and only wants a conducive atmosphere and justification for him to go back to Lhasa to regain the religious authority over the Tibetan people. His other main demand is to merge excluded areas of Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai to the Tibet Autonomous Region. However, the Chinese government smells rat in the proposition and is wary of conceding this demand.
         During my recent visit to Tibet, it was quite interesting to look at the Chinese perspective of the need to change the present and future generations of the Tibetan monks and monasteries. Chinese officials showcased the best of amenities that are being provided to monasteries and their Tibetan monks; in the process however conspicuous was their design to transform the independent monks into Sarkari ones. The Chinese government has set up several monk training centres generously funded by the government. Chinese, who are known to work with a vision for the next two or three decades, have opened a Tibetan Buddhism University, where young kids selected from various villages are trained to become monks. I had the chance to visit one of the centres where kids as young as 7-8 years were housed in a hostel, where air conditioned rooms were as good as in any good hotel. These kids get generous amount as scholarship and teachers enjoy fat salaries. One glaring aspect of this university, which was essentially a monk training centre, could not go unnoticed--the hostel rooms were adorned with photographs of Mao Tse Dong, Deng Xiao Ping, Jiang Zhe Min etc. and not a single picture of the religious leaders like Dalai Lama and Panchen Lama. Obviously the kids are being impregnated with ideals and thoughts of these leaders rather than their revered religious leaders.
        

This is the Chinese way to brainwash these kids and instill their minds with pro-communist regime of China. Naturally, when they will grow up as adults and deployed by the state to guide and control the destinies of more than 1,700 monasteries across Tibet, they would be preaching religious followers the thoughts of Mao along with the teachings of Lord Buddha. The present Panchen Lama, still in his early thirties, lives not at Shigatse monastery, the revered seat of Panchen Lama, but in Beijing and makes an annual pilgrimage to the holy place. 
         Chinese government does not see eye to eye with the current Dalai Lama, and since no incarnation is legitimately possible, the present incarnation of Panchen Lama, has been trained as sarkari Lama and the Chinese government has taken every care to insulate the young Panchen Lama from the Tibetan religious functionaries. The absence of Dalai Lama from the seat of governance, the Potala Palace, is missed by common Tibetans, who according to locals is revered with deep sense of love, though the Chinese government describes him as a wily insurgent.
         From Potala Palace to Shigatse, a distance of almost 300 km presents picturesque surroundings adorned with ultra-modern zigzagging highways. Monasteries are full of life with devotees performing their religious chores and chanting Sutras. Religious activities take place routinely, except that the state keeps a close watch on them.
         The Chinese government in order to win over Tibetans has invested a lot in infrastructure, which has undoubtedly brought economic revolution in the area and Tibetans are experiencing a life style which was unimaginable a few decades ago. The capital Lhasa boasts of an ultramodern airport, which is connected to the city with a 60 km long expressway. The city itself presents a picture of an ultra modern township with mega malls, shopping centres, eateries etc. The city bustles with economic activities thanks to its Economic and Technical Development Zone, which is attracting millions of dollars as investments.
The economic zone offers immense scope for employment to Han population but local Tibetans too are benefitting a lot. The Tibetan youths have an opportunity to study in one of the best equipped universities in Lhasa enabling them to get skilled jobs in modern factories. The Tibetan youths are also encouraged to study in institutions of higher learning in Beijing and other major cities.
         After the Chinese took control of Tibet in 1951, the first decision was to free the poor Tibetans from serfdom, which indeed has done wonders in their life. A modern life has been thrown open to them and they seem to be enjoying the benefits of industrial development. Their living standards have reached an unimaginable level, though the freedom to lead one’s own religious life is constrained. But Tibetans have no choice. Having the Dalai Lama already accepted Chinese sovereignty over the Tibetan areas; there is little political space left for any adherent group to reverse Chinese control over the vast Tibetan plateau..
( The Article was first published in the monthly magazine of political affairs the ' Lokayat' (June, 2013 issue)

Cry for political reforms in China

China’s ultra fast economy has achieved the second place in the world and it may challenge America’s pre-eminent position before long. But this has not lessened the economic stresses on Chinese people. Prices of essential commodities are soaring relentlessly and housing, health and education are getting beyond most of them. So, the new leaders who have just taken over the reins of power in Beijing have an arduous road ahead. People will not accept mere talk of socialism and sacrifice any more.Their shrill cry for political reforms is echoing from all-around the famed walls…..

By VSP Kurup
China’s political and economic road map announced by the new leadership does notpresage any change in the extant policies; yet there is a general assumption that even driving along the path and direction laid down by the great visionary Jiang Zemin and faithfully followed by his able successors Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao until recently, will mean the future is pregnant with immense possibilities. During the 14 years (1989-2003) when Jiang Zemin was at the helm of affairs China became the fastest growing economy in the world. Today it is the second largest economy, overtaking Japan and all European giants. Who can say it will not challenge the USA for the first position before the end of the decade?Now trying to recover from virtual financial ruins, America is deeply worried about this prospect.
        Reiterating the government’s known position before the first assembly of the newly constituted 2,200-member Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), its Chairman Yu Zhengsheng declared that the country would continue with the single party system; it would never accept the multi-party governance as in the West. But the Communist Party of China (CPC)-led government would have consultations with other groups. (In China there are eight other political parties but they are allowed to function only in consonance with and subordinate to the CPC.)
        The CPPCC is the second chamber of the Chinese parliament with 60 percent members from outside the party-- akin to the Rajya Sabha. It has only an advisory role. The real power is wielded by the National People’s Congress (NPC), the main chamber of parliament with 3,000 members, mostly communist party cardholders. A 7-member Standing Committee, or cabinet, controls the party as well as the government. Yu Zhengsheng who presides over the CPPCC occupies the 4th place in the Standing Committee, which is headed by the party chairman and president of China, Xi Jinping.
        For all its vibrant lip-service to people’s power and paeans of popular movements, China is not ready to establish democracy. It is not willing to loosen control on the media. There have been several reports of the government muzzling the internet as well as newspapers for publishing certain unsavory facts about the high and mighty in China. And, despite the apparent calm on the surface, there have been nearly two lakh agitations in various parts of China in 2012.
        Assuredly, the trek China has started on the capitalist road without any fuss or flamboyance will continue because its people ‘enjoy’ the new ambience. They (at least the top cream who alone matter) have private property, expensive cars, luxury mansions, fat bank balance – why, all goodies for a fast life. (Other concomitants of capitalism like corruption, sexual escapades, political murders etc. too are there. But that is another story.) The irony is that China still swears by socialism. Zhengsheng stressed that the extant ‘Chinese socialism’ would continue to shape its economy! No hint of a definition of this new jargon, but one can presume from the goings on in hinterland China that it consists less of socialism and more of capitalism!
Statistically, Chinese economy might have become number two in the world, but there is no respite for the people groaning under severe stress on account of rocketing prices of essential commodities. Real estate prices are also going beyond the reach of ordinary people with attendant consequences. It is the same story with regard to education and medical treatment. Where is the stamp of socialism in all these?
        Just before the current CPPCC meeting an open letter signed by more than 100 prominent Chinese leaders, scholars, economists, journalists and former party officials made an unprecedented appeal for political reforms. The letter urged the CPC leadership particularly to ratify the International Human Rights Treaty ‘in order to further promote and establish the principles of human rights and constitutionalism in China’. It is said to be the boldest demand yet coming from Chinese intellectuals. They hoped the new leaders would push for political reforms, curtail the party’s power and raise the authority of constitution and courts. The party and the government can not ignore these cries for long, especially since they do not want another scandalous Tiananmen!
( The Article was first published in the monthly magazine of political affairs the ' Lokayat' (June, 2013 issue)  

Indo-Japan Bonhomie irks China

India has initiated steps to expand its defence relationship with Japan. If this is seriously pursued, it can be a game-changer for the geopolitics in Asia as well as the economy of both the countries.

By Vinod Varshney
Japan and India have finally decided to expand their defence relationship as both countries remain apprehensive of China’s aggressive postures. Chinese attitude has forced them to change their foreign policy stances, though quite late. Japan has stopped assailing India for its nuclear tests conducted in 1998; rather it is now ready to enter into civil nuclear cooperation with it. Japan is also moving towards changing its pacifist constitution to be able to do normal defence preparedness to thwart Chinese muscle-flexing over Senkaku islands in South China Sea.
      Indian keenness to have better strategic tie-up with Japan acquired fresh urgency in the shadow of Chinese incursion in Depsang (Ladakh) last month. Their troops entered 25 kilometers deep into Indian territory and erected three tents while Chinese authorities continued to claim it was Chinese area. China had already annexed Aksai Chin area of Jammu & Kashmir and lays blatant claim on entire Arunachal Pradesh. It does not support Indian sovereignty on J&K. No wonder, a recent survey conducted by two international think tanks revealed that some 83 percent Indians view China as a security threat. That is why Indian government chose to be a realist this time rather than a romantist as in Nehru’s days.  However, as expected the Indian move irked China and its pro-government Global Times warned that India can improve relations with Japan only at its peril. India would only be inviting problems for itself if it does so.
      The process had started to improve relations with Japan as early as 2006 when Shinzo Abe first welcomed prime minister Manmohan Singh in Tokyo. But relations between India and Japan did not acquire momentun due to political instability in Japan where no prime minister on an average would stay even for a year. 
      If we see from the point of view of Indian needs, the growing relationship with Japan is the need of the hour. Not only does the security threat to both countries from China make it a compulsive choice but also the economic complementarity. India needs badly investment and high technology to improve its productivity to compete with China economically.
      In the current state of affairs India is not only facing huge trade deficit with China which makes one third of its total current account deficit but also losing its economic growth to China to some extent as Indian markets remain flooded with Chinese goods stagnating its manufacturing. Japan too needs India as a big market, almost equal to China.
      The immediate gain to India is Japan’s flagship investment in the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor and a new Bangalore-Chennai Corridor. This would alter country’s manufacturing fortunes.

( The Article was first published in the monthly magazine of political affairs the ' Lokayat' (June, 2013 issue) 

Why India has only a fifty percent chance to succeed!

By Koomitara

After a decade of satisfactory global economic growth, thanks largely to very rapid growth of emerging nations, there is a pall of gloom now when the much celebrated high growth nations too are on the path of slow down. The question is which countries are going to reverse the slow down? Which will be new break-out nations? These questions have been answered in the book under review in highly refreshing manner with convincing arguments and palpable logic.

  The book remained in the chart of the Best Sellers for months together though it is not sufficient to judge its true merit. On the other hand there are a number of reasons to think that this may be the best book on global economic trends, which are puzzling and defying easy explanation.    
  
  Ruchir Sharma not only has deep insights into the economic trends of various countries owing to his profession which requires judicious investment decisions in emerging markets of the world, but also has a flair for lucid writing. He writes regularly for the Newsweek, Wall Street Journal and Economic Times. He is with the global market giant Morgan Stanley.
  
  The author takes his readers on an exciting tour of the world’s two dozen most interesting economies. He spots, describes and analyses forces that are unique to each country and which could make or mar the countries in the future. This he does convincingly as he has been a keen globe-trotter for two decades watching what was happening on the ground in developing countries. He spends one week every month in one or the other developing country.

India is like Brazil, not China

With these credentials his judgments carry conviction. His first major conclusion is that China's growth will slow sharply. The trend will be even more negative in the case of India, according to him. He thinks India is much like Brazil, not China. He observes: political elites of India and Brazil share a deep fondness for welfare-state liberalism, even though their economies do not generate the necessary revenue to support this. ‘India’s government expenditure has been increasing by 20 percent per year which is much more than the economy’s growth. The result is India’s total fiscal deficit has ballooned to 9 percent of the GDP from 6 percent. And total public debt to GDP ratio is now 70 percent, the highest for any developing country.’ If it goes on like this, India is going to face the same fate which Brazil confronted in the 1970s. The book says, it is easy to increase welfare spending during the boom, but the trouble is, it continues to rise even during a period of slowdown.

  One bigger problem he cites is the high cost of doing business in India. This makes Indian businessmen reluctant to invest in their own country; their investment has declined from 17 percent in 2008 to 13 percent now. At a time when Indians should invest more in India, they are looking for greener pastures abroad, he moans. Foreign operations now account for 10 percent of their overall profits: it was just 2 percent five years ago.

  The book is candid in theorising that corruption and crony capitalism lowers the growth as it kills competition. The book makes interesting observations on political leadership and its impact on national growth, and explains why the Congress now rules only in 2 of the ten major states of India. By citing the example of Bihar, he asserts: if people elect right leaders, the growth follows.

  Jairam Ramesh may be an ardent admirer of MNREGA, but he proves how it is damaging the country overall as it is pinning people to farms in low productivity jobs and restricting their migration to higher productivity employments in urban areas. This Indian strategy is just opposite to that of China which converted its growing labour force into an economic miracle just by helping migration. In India people living in urban areas rose from 26 to 30 percent only while in China they went up from 35 to 46 percent.

  The author finds great merit in the population explosion of India. ‘By 2020 average age of the Chinese would be 37, average Indian 29 and average European 49. China would be old before it gets rich and India would be a middle-income country and still young.’ Conventional view is, India will be able to put this young generation to work because of its relatively better educational system, entrepreneurial zeal and strong link to global economy. Still the author gives only 50 percent probability for India to emerge as a break-out nation as it is ham-strung by various risks like bloated government, crony capitalism, falling turnover of capital and the farmers’ disturbing tendency to stay on the farm. The book makes a quick survey of the global scene: Brazil will grow only at half the rate of China if it did not reform. Mexicans are migrating abroad for fear of being fleeced by petty officials and the police. (Mexico saw a net outflow of 2.4 million people during 2006-10, the largest exodus in the world.) Brazilians, very much like Indians, eagerly look for state-funded social welfare, resulting in high inflation and low growth rate-- four percent per year during 2003-07. Brazil has one of the highest interest rates in the world. As for Russia, despite having been the first into space and produced 27 Nobel laureates in science, mathematics, and economics, it has no global manufacturing company on its stock exchange. It has one of the world's worst aging population problems. In Russia there is room only at the top and things would not improve with the existing czarist mindset. 

  The book surveys the world to examine which nations are likely to flourish or disappoint, and which may emerge as break-out nations. Really interesting read!

What has Manmohan Singh done!

And on achievements of Manmohan Singh, he says he opened Indian market to foreigners and lowered import tariff from 85 percent to 25 percent. Yet, in the 1990s Indian growth rate was only 5.5 percent, not much faster than in the 1980s. India took off only during the global boom of 2003. It was not triggered by local factors. Singh remained just a figurehead, did not push any reform measure though he raised high hopes.



( The book review was first published in the monthly magazine of political affairs the ' Lokayat' (May, 2013 issue) 

Impressions of an Indian Diaspora

By MR Dua

These are the changing faces of India seen through the eyes of a person of Indian origin. He rushes into wrong first impressions, but soon corrects—yes, India has changed, is changing though through  messy, trial and error methods…. Who could say where it was headed…..

Impressed, perhaps deeply influenced by the post-1991 economic boom, many a highly educated and successful Indian youth in the United States of America and other western countries, have returned to their motherland after long absence.

  They thought ‘India was booming, with seductive options and possibilities’, but on closer view, they found that even though it had made fantastic  transformations in every field, its innate environment still needed to go much forward. The so-called economic revolution had effected no significant modification of the ancient Indian society.

  This is the gist of what Akash Kapur relates in this readable volume. Born to an Indian father and American mother, Kapur spent his ‘formative years and early adulthood in the US’. Consumed by a desire to understand the true India and witness its multitudinous faces, he settles down in Auroville, a small salubrious hamlet, near Pudducherry, with his American wife and two young sons.

He chose a spot not far from Chennai where he had been earlier, to be able to move around, make new friends and speak with villagers. And then he started noting the changes that had occurred while he was away. He found that India was definitely shedding the asceticism and austerity that had marked it for far too long, and becoming an acquisitive society.

  But despite the 1991 barrage of radical reforms, Kapur finds pervasive poverty side by side affluence, everywhere. To learn more about the paradox in the social milieu he travels to interior villages and digs into personal lives of some individuals. He meets his boyhood friend, R Sathyanarayanan, or Sathy, who lives in the village Molasur where he owns thousands of acres of land. Sathy’s wife Banushree Reddy, an MBA prefers city life, and stays in Bengaluru with their two children. Kapur learns that dalits are no longer a suppressed section of society.

  The author meets a young IT worker Hari, whose ‘gay’ life in the conservative Indian society flummoxes him. He then runs into a young IT-trained workaholic girl Selvi, who believes that ‘if you rest, you rust.’  Her parents are uneasy about her contacts with boys who might harm her. But she is confident of protecting herself--she will stay ‘faithful to her parents.’

  Kapur also met a highly educated divorcee, Veena, who had gone through an unhappy married life. She was co-habiting with a boyfriend, Arvind. In interaction with the author, she expressed her resolve to stay single, but he (the author) convinced her of the desirability of marrying Arvind whom she liked so much. He accepted his advice but after marriage she became a victim of cancer.    Luckily she was nursed back to health. Once she became a mother, she gave up her highly-paid job to lead a happy married life. 
After his kaleidoscopic experience around Chennai and later in Bangalore, Kapur shifted to Mumbai where he felt that development was being unkind to the city. He was dismayed by the sights of congested neighbourhoods and acute poverty all around in the metropolis.

  He also describes the woeful environment of the world famous Auroville where his own family suffered badly on account of callous dumping of waste in the neighbourhood. ‘India is burning, eroding, melting, drying, silting up and suffocating. Across the country, rivers, lakes and glaciers are disappearing, underground aquifers getting  depleted, air quality declining and beaches being swept away’, he moans.

  On the problem of garbage, Kapur says that a wholesale transformation is required. The way the government worked needs to be changed and education must instill a sense of civic consciousness in children. It was a wonder to him that ‘a population capable of maintaining ritualistic levels of hygiene at home’ dumps ‘its garbage on the streets without any compunction.’

  Finally, love of the country overwhelms him as he concludes: ‘I had returned from America full of enthusiasm. I celebrated what I saw as the rejuvenation of my home. Later, the enthusiasm started eroding; the rejuvenation appeared to be an illusion. My optimism turned to skepticism, occasionally bordering on despair’.  He acknowledged that he had perhaps rushed to judgment. India did not lend itself to easy judgments…modern India was changing…the nation was on a journey, going through the contradictions of a rapid, and inevitably messy, transformation. Who could say where the journey was headed!

( The book review was first published in the monthly magazine of political affairs the ' Lokayat' (April, 2013 issue) 

Global India: Save our girls from rapists !

Global India: Ban porn to save our girls from rapists !: Rape cases are mounting at an alarming rate. Everybody is rightly concerned about it. Since there is hardly any unanimity about the root c...

Save our girls from rapists !

By Vinod Varshney
Rape cases are mounting at an alarming rate. Everybody is rightly concerned about it. Since there is hardly any unanimity about the root causes of this distressing crime hence no consensus on solutions. When feminists protest carrying placards and scream ‘this is our body, we have full rights over it’, they just limit the notion about the magnificent womanhood to their body. This is a mistake: they see and want to be seen themselves only as a body--a sex object--not as someone with a personality, exclusive individuality, dignity, opinion and above all, intelligence. It is sad, even ironic that women activists themselves spread this totally wrong notion.

It is common knowledge that people with a criminal bent of mind, who think they can get anything done by use of force, and easily escape from the clutches of the law, are the ones who indulge in rapes. So, only all-out measures will end rapes. But will it? Odds are great indeed.

In some advanced countries rape is punishable by chemical castration, which is which is nothing but forced medication to control the excess formation of testosterone,the male sex hormone that increases the libido. But feminists in India are against the measure. Rape being a crime of pervert mind and excessive sexual desire, controlling it should start with the mindset. There is a well-known aphorism that sex does not exist between the legs, but in the mind. That means young minds should be helped to develop a balanced mind about sex. However, even a cultured mind can get corrupted by pornography and vulgar novels. These generate an irrepressible obsession about hidden female parts. But there is a strong lobby favouring them.

PIL demanding ban on viewing porn in India 

There is the instance of an advocate who filed a Public interest litigation (PIL) in the Supreme Court to ban internet pornography, especially child pornography. But lo, here appeared a spate of articles in the social media against the ban saying that porn is a good thing! A few said it helped sex education. Others thought it released pent up energy which in the case of those who masturbated was probably correct.

Over 20 crore porn videos or clippings are freely available in the net. Two alleged rapists of a 5-year-old child in Delhi admitted that they saw a porn clip before committing the crime.

Few parents are aware of the deleterious effects of porn on their wards. Even if they knew what could they do? The ubiquitous mobile has made it impossible to have any control on porn-viewing, because schoolchildren are routinely provided with mobile phones (or tablets) for the convenience of parents. They do not have time even to check how their children make use of the gadget.

One expected that at least women activists would support the demand for banning pornography, but no; many of them have campaigned against banning it because it curbs the freedom of expression enshrined in the constitution! They say porn is banned nowhere except in Saudi Arabia and China. Some European countries and Iceland have just started debating the pros and cons of banning it. It may be outrageous to make viewing porn a cognizable offence, but at least its availability, especially child porn, on the net should be banned.



 





Note: The article was first published in the monthly magazine 'Lokayat' (May, 2013 issue).

Don’t misuse gang-rape case!

By Vinod Varshney


The simple Delhi gang-rape case is being converted into a cause célèbre by different  interest groups to suit their assorted needs and purposes. Thus social groups, feminist bodies, political parties etc. are out to extract maximum mileage out of it or promote their hobby horse. Media is also using the issue to increase its TRP. In this free-for- all the fear is that the central idea of cutting rape incidents and ensuring justice to victims might get mangled.

May be, there is a spurt in rape cases in recent years, but in fact rape incidents in India are 20 times less than in developed countries. Basically, it is a patent menace in the west. Compared to India’s 1.8 rapes per lakh of population there were 27.3 in the US, 28.8 in the UK, 63 in Sweden and 79.5 in Australia in 2010, according to UN statistics. This fact, however, should not detract us from fighting this crime and shame tooth and nail. But how do we go about it?  We do not agree on many points.
 For instance, feminists demand complete autonomy of female body devoid of all moral and social control. But the next step is dreadful commoditisation of sex! Commoditisation of beauty has already become the norm in globalised society. It leads to free use of  beauty (female body) in ads and direct sales.

Let us look at another point. Deep in the shadow of the glittery world of pubs and discos, is a class of people who struggle hard to eke out a living. Hundreds of millions thus work in inhuman conditions for a pittance. In the Delhi gang-rape case the accused teenager had left his parental home at the age of eleven to earn his livelihood in dhabas and ghettoes. The brutally abusive environment prepared him (we create him) for nothing but a criminal future. No wonder he did not understand the finer divisions of morality, ethics, culture and law. To correct him and his kind, our feminists’ suggestion is to change the mindset of men! Not reforming the system, because that is not easy. We always look for the easy way out.

The focus of debate, therefore, must shift to making punishment more stringent. There also we see no consensus. The Verma panel on the basis of memos received from the public suggested certain concrete measures. But the government always knows best. So, throwing out all inconvenient suggestions of the panel the government hastily prepared an ordinance and asked the President to sign which he obligingly did.

The feminists (and many others) had to reject the ordinance because what they sought was not there. The feminists particularly wanted to outlaw rape within marriage. Many do not agree; inclusion of marital rape in the proposed Bill, they argue, is devoid of even the basic rationale.  If there is rape in marriage, where does marriage fit in? The demand is dangerous to the institution of marriage and will destroy family life as we know.  Unfortunately feminist approach is influenced by dangerous western thinking. It is bound to make more single women  crave for male company and cause more divorces!
The idea of consent for sex in the name of autonomy of female body is preposterous as it is an exercise in commoditisation of sex and an effort to get a tool for blackmailing. The feminists should rather shift their attention to positive values of social development. The attempt to use the gang-rape to distort society norms needs  to be condemned by all.

(Note: The article was first published in the February, 2013 issue of monthly magazine 'Lokayat')

Ominous Footfalls of a Horrific Crime

By Vinod Varshney

Who can oppose the harshest of punishment for a rapist? But making an inhuman law and not having safeguards against its misuse defeat its purpose. The task to eliminate the root causes of crimes against women is as difficult as they are varied. So the lawmakers chose the easy path: to enact a stringent law, more so because it was perceived as vote catching too. All parties barring a few jumped at it. BJP leaders appeared more feminist than feminists themselves in their game of one-upmanship.

Many felt the law was enacted in a hurry, without requite, wider debate. Even when it was debated in the Lok Sabha general apathy was palpably visible in the skimpy attendance and indifferent participation. Many women for whose safety the law was enacted said it was lopsided and discriminatory.

A good law ought to ensure punishment of the guilty and make safeguards against harassment of the innocent. Samajwadi Party MP Jaya Bachchan showed the sense to say in parliament that the anti-rape Bill was anti-male and its provisions made men vulnerable to its misuse. Sumitra Mahajan of the BJP also cautioned against its widespread misuse. Sharad Yadav feared that the law could be misused if a love affair ended on the rocks. Women activist Madhu Kishwar pointed out that it was gruesome to make a law according to which having sex meant either marriage or jail for the next 10 to 20 years.

Even consensual sex has been vitiated by gender-bias. After indulging in consensual sex, if a girl changes her mind and does not want to marry, she can just walk away. But the boy, he can be booked as a rapist. If a married couple breaks up, the matter ends in divorce, rather than sending the husband to jail on rape charge; but this cannot be done if a breach occurs during the live-in relationship, or courting.

In short, the law as passed can only create an environment of hostility and suspicion between man and woman. It destroys the mutual attraction between the two sexes—the universal, beautiful gift of nature-- on which the succession of all species depends.

Alas! Many NGOs who not only seek funds from abroad, but also import damaging habit, behaviour and ideas give women only broken marriages, spinsterhood and everlasting bitterness. Today in France many men and women (their number is increasing) do not want to marry: they prefer unromantic live-in relationship to wedded bliss. Even if they marry, two out of three couples end up in divorce.

The situation in the US is worse. There the institution of marriage which normally signifies the union between man and woman has been reduced to a prosaic business contract. They make and break them any number of times. People await with interest the US apex court verdict --likely to come in June-- on same sex marriage. Nine out of 50 states in the US have already recognised same sex marriage. Surprisingly 58 percent of people support it. If we continue to ape the west, the same trend may come to India as well. But where will children come from?

The brutal rape case of December 16 last is indeed pregnant with surprises. One has already come from Mysore University: it has allowed reservation in admissions to rape-victims! Such mindless indulgence can pervert society and induce a woman to declare herself a victim of abuse for the sake of claiming a university seat!! What next is the question.....



Note: The article was first published in the April, 2013 issue
of 'Lokayat' magazine.

Media should declare its business & political interests: Arvind Kejriwal

By Bodhi Shri

Anna Hazare’s historic fast accompanied with mass protest at Ramlila Maidan last year demanding Jan Lokpal as a sure recipe to stem all-pervading corruption in the country and a recent flash protest at India Gate after the Delhi gang-rape case in a moving bus, are two apt Indian examples to illustrate how social media can be used to build and sustain a five star movement. Only condition is that it should be complemented by main stream media especially the 24x7 TV making the protesting mob spectacle sensational. 

Founder of Aam Admi Party Arvind Kejriwal (4th from the left) regaled students of journalism by his side-splitters against corrupt politicians of India. He urged youth to not hate politics, but join it to change India.

The combined blistering heat of social media and TV was earlier felt by despots of the Middle East during the spring revolution it had created. The outcome was a few despots got dethroned. Arvind Kejriwal, a trusted former associate of Anna Hazare, is now experimenting with building a political outfit ‘Aam Admi Party’ to take on the corrupt Indian political system with the help of social media.  He is a craze among students these days.

It was a day of delight and positive stimulus for the students pursuing their 3-year BJMC course at the BLS Institute of Technology Management (Bahadurgarh, Haryana, when they got Kejriwal as the chief guest for their panel discussion on ‘Media as a Catalyst of Society’ on 21 February.  They found him a great regaler who kept them bursting into laughter by his side-splitters against corrupt politicians. At the outset he established his brand-equity by declaring he was an aam adami (common man) like any one of them or anyone in India.

What oppressed the countrymen most, he asked and gave the consensual answer--the corrupt politics, which is controlled by none other, but ‘your’ elected representatives.  He gave statistics of how many of them were facing heinous criminal charges in the courts of law. The highest law making body the Parliament, whose lower house Lok Sabha has 14 members facing charges of murder and 13 other charges of kidnapping. Seeing all this the youth today says—I hate politics. ‘No, this is wrong decision, you should not think like this. You need to participate in politics to change its character.’

Media should declare political and business interests

Sushil Aggarwal, chairman of BLS Education Society (Right) 

He qualified his praise for media as a roller coaster supporter of people’s cause, but most other times it remained blindfolded to the stark reality. He complimented media for taking Anna’s stir to every home, also the issue of women safety in Delhi. By doing so it proved it was with the people. It proved that it can act as catalyst. Even during the emergency in mid seventies it wasn’t neutral, and sided with people. But in general we find today a competition of sensationalism going on among media. Media covered an event only till it had some sensational value. He raised a pertinent question why certain media present certain things in a certain manner. ‘To maintain credibility, the biggest asset of any media, it should declare its business and political interests like how much share the FDI or the Big Business hold in its equity? People should know this. Why there should not be transparency in that.’   

Kejriwal limited his comments to the mainstream media and ignored fast emerging social media that poses a new challenge to the established one. Other panelists, viz. Vinod Varshney Editor of Lokayat, Dhiranjan Malvey OSD in Prasar Bharti, Vinod Arora, Chief Operational Officer of the ministry of information and broadcasting and Ratan Singh of Dainik Bhaskar, together built up a comprehensive picture of the media, including social media.

Dhiranjan explained the economic compulsions of media how without Rs 500 crore one cannot start and run a TV channel successfully with national footprints. He posed a question how anybody can expect media to act as a catalyst when the first worry of the owners remained to see their investment is not sunk. ‘This is a reality that private channels care more for their bottom-line.’ However, the internet media can afford to be free if it wants, as at least there are no such business compulsions involved in running it. Luckily, social media has also started attracting advertisements in good volumes, sometimes more than the conventional media, he informed.

FDI in media changed its character

Vinod Varshney emphasised that the character of Indian media got changed drastically since the FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) was allowed in media. He gave inkling of the times when the debate was raging whether to allow FDI or not in media. Many argued against allowing this as it would ruin the culture and value system of the country and media would become an agent to promote the western values, political and business interests. But a section, desperate as it was, not being able to compete with the monopoly national media, pressed for it. And now see the result--media is getting more and more attuned to western concerns, interests and values. 

It is promoting a consumerist culture which serves the business interests of the companies who produce related goods and services. To hook the rest of India fake sensationalism is offered. The media thus lately is becoming more and more damaging to the desirable values of liberalism, social welfare and concerns of masses.

Big corporate advertisers have over-controlled the media and as such the media does not remain a catalyst for the positive development of the society. This apart, the poor working conditions, including job security, is also taking its toll on the Indian media. The control of the editor on the editorial policy and content is now thing of the past. It is the business boss who decides what is good for the company as every quarter it looks forward to declaring growth in profits if it is a stock exchange listed company.  

Consumerist culture is being propagated to the loss of inclusive human culture which alone can cater to the general development and welfare of the society. He slammed journalist fraternity for not caring to go deeper into issues and develop sound understanding of them. Alibi that people want sensational stuff so only that should be offered, has become the rule. He urged the students to develop rational thinking and scientific outlook so that they can bust myths and not swayed by propaganda of various interest groups.

He termed social media more dynamic and more democratic, however many say that large part of it is propagandist. This media is being used mainly by various interest groups.

Vinod Arora gave a detailed history of how media developed and grew. Ratan Singh of Dainik Bhaskar told from his personal experience how difficult it was to get revealing stories published if they go against the business interests of the owners. Students of journalism may remain idealist till they are in the class room, but the missionary zeal gets evaporated soon once they join a media organisation as they have to invest all their energy to protect their jobs.