By Vinod Varshney
While
the nation has, for the first time, honoured its heroes who sacrificed their
lives for their motherland in the war
with China 50 years ago, the Government
of India is still fighting shy of
publishing the Brooks-Bhagat report on the humiliating defeat. The
countrymen have a right to know what exactly went wrong, who should be held
accountable for the shame and what lessons, if any, the government, the defence
brass and strategic experts have learnt.
It was certainly a
stab in the back by China. Blinded by idealistic myopia, then prime minister
Nehru never suspected that the ‘friendly’ China would have expansionist designs
and unleash a full-scale war on India.
So, while we ignored the warning reports Beijing was fine-tuning its
strategic agenda. It found the Cubanmissile crisis of 1962, when the Soviet and US nuclear armadas were facing
eyeball to eyeball in the Caribbean, an opportune moment to assault an unprepared
and unprotected India. China calculated that the US would not care to rush help
to India while itself was in a critical
face off with the Soviet Union.
China was absolutely right. When an emotionally shaken Nehru
pleaded with President John F Kennedy for urgent dispatch of bombers and other
urgent military stores, he tactfully dragged his feet. Thus the second lesson
we learnt was, we should not put all our eggs in one basket. This bitter truth
made Indira Gandhi to conclude a defence pact with the USSR which came handy
subsequently during the 1971 Bangladesh liberation war. China and the USA did
issue dire warnings to India--nothing more.
The Himalayan debacle also taught India that irrespective of
one’s desire for good neighbourly relations, as India and China had maintained
for thousands of years, one cannot take anybody for granted forever. One has to
continuously re-assess the political designs and philosophy of one’s neighbours
correctly. And one should exercise vigil and match military preparedness to the
changing threat perception.
This axiom deserves reiteration today as the gap between
military might of China and India since 1962 has widened. Our poor economic
growth due to various political and systemic constraints could be blamed for
this sorry state. However, while we struggle to go beyond a measly 6 percent
growth rate China consistently maintains a rate of 10 percent -- for the last
three decades! Today its economy is three times bigger!!
Naturally this fabulous economic strength is reflected on
its superior military might. For instance, China has put up an invincible array
of offensive installations on the entire 4056- km Line of Actual Control-- five
air bases, long-haul rail networks, 58,000 km of road-networks, ballistic
missile and advanced fighter bases. Recently it did a high-end air and ground
exercise on the border. Can India ignore all this despite its desire for
peaceful co-existence with China, especially after its occupation of Aksai Chin
and aggressive claims on Arunachal Pradesh?
One thing is sure: a future war would not be the ‘primitive’
type we witnessed in 1962; it would see deployment of nuclear arms and missiles
and be immensely destructive. It would not be limited to land, air and sea
either, but would extend to space and even cyber space! What will be the denouement
of such a war? There will not be a single victor, but too many losers. So……
China’s current leadership, the Hu Jintao-Wen Jiabao duo,
understands the scenario: it wants no war. Let us hope its emerging leadership
too will not be adventurist. All the same we cannot afford to be complacent or
be caught off guard once again.